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Prediction for CME (2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-15T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39518/-1
CME Note: An asymmetric, fast, and relatively diffuse CME from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) seen to the north-northeast in SOHO C2 associated with an M8.4 flare peaking at 2025-06-15T18:07Z; the eruption is seen as significant dimming somewhat to the northwest of the active region with post-eruptive arcades and EUV wave also seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is likely deflected northwards out of the ecliptic, but analysis from M2M suggests that the southern flank may graze Earth early on 2025-06-18. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-18T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2025 Jun 17 1246 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50617
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jun 2025, 1244UT
...
Coronal mass ejections: The fast narrow coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME
519) first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data around 18:24 UTC
on June 15 has been modelled to primarily miss the Earth with chances of a
shock arrival on June 18.

Lead Time: 45.37 hour(s)
Difference: 19.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-17T09:38Z

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